Thinking in Bets
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Max Levchin
I read this book all the way through because I found the premise so intriguing. [The author] is a well-known poker player and won a World Series of Poker gold bracelet. - Max Levchin
Mike Maples, Jr.
I wish I had learned the discipline of how to decide when I was younger. - Mike Maples, Jr.
Howard Marks
So many of [the author's] thoughts on poker and on decision-making in general agreed with mine. - Howard Marks
Marc Andreessen
Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. - Marc Andreessen
Michael Mauboussin
An awesome book. - Michael Mauboussin
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9
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Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke
By
Annie Duke
3.8
1860
ratings on Goodreads

In the high-stakes world of decision-making, where the line between a triumphant victory and a devastating loss can be as thin as a thread, "Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke emerges as a revolutionary guide. Through the lens of a professional poker player, Duke unveils the art of making smarter decisions in the face of uncertainty. With vivid anecdotes from sports, politics, and business, she challenges the conventional wisdom that good decisions always lead to good outcomes, and vice versa. Duke's insights offer a compelling framework for navigating life's unpredictable waters, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging what we don't know and the role of luck in our successes and failures. At the heart of Duke's philosophy is the concept of treating decisions like bets, a strategy that encourages a more nuanced approach to risk and uncertainty. She argues that success in the long run depends on our ability to think probabilistically, assess odds accurately, and accept the inherent unpredictability of life. "Thinking in Bets" equips readers with the tools to deconstruct their decision-making process, free themselves from the shackles of a binary right-wrong mindset, and embrace a more balanced, strategic way of thinking. Duke's transformative approach is not just about making better decisions; it's about cultivating a mindset that thrives in the complex, ambiguous reality of the modern world.

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Released
2018
2 Feb
Length
288
Pages

9

recommendations

recommendation

Mark Manson recommended this book on his website.
[The author]'s academic plus poker background make this at a fascinating perspective. - Danny Miranda
Jason Fried mentioned this book on Twitter.
So many of [the author's] thoughts on poker and on decision-making in general agreed with mine. - Howard Marks
I wish I had learned the discipline of how to decide when I was younger. - Mike Maples, Jr.
I read this book all the way through because I found the premise so intriguing. [The author] is a well-known poker player and won a World Series of Poker gold bracelet. - Max Levchin
An awesome book. - Michael Mauboussin
The first chapter alone will change your life. - Seth Godin
Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. - Marc Andreessen
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.
— Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets

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