Radical Uncertainty
Radical Uncertainty
John Kay
Keith Rabois
Keith Rabois mentioned this book on Twitter.
+
1
All books

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

John Kay
By
John Kay
3.9
871
ratings on Goodreads

In "Radical Uncertainty," John Kay and co-author Mervyn King navigate the foggy terrain of decision-making in a world where not all uncertainties can be resolved with data and probability. This thought-provoking book challenges the comfort we find in the numerical predictions of experts, revealing the deeper, unquantifiable uncertainties that shape our world. From the high-stakes gamble of tracking down Osama bin Laden to the unforeseeable explosion of the smartphone market, Kay and King illustrate how the most critical decisions defy the neat calculations of probability theory. They argue that life’s most significant uncertainties demand a type of reasoning that goes beyond numbers, embracing the unknown with strategies that are resilient to a future we can neither predict nor quantify. Kay and King do not merely diagnose the limits of statistical forecasting; they offer a compelling alternative for navigating life's unpredictabilities. They propose developing robust and resilient strategies that can withstand the shock of the unforeseeable, urging individuals, businesses, and policymakers to accept the inherent uncertainty of the future as a source of creativity and growth. Rather than succumbing to the allure of false precision, "Radical Uncertainty" encourages a shift towards a more qualitative judgment, where the unknown is not an obstacle but an opportunity for innovation and adaptability. This paradigm shift, according to Kay and King, is essential for thriving in a world where the only certainty is uncertainty itself.

Read more
Released
2020
5 Mar
Length
544
Pages

1

recommendations

recommendation

Keith Rabois mentioned this book on Twitter.
Radical uncertainty cannot be described in the probabilistic terms applicable to a game of chance. It is not just that we do not know what will happen. We often do not even know the kinds of things that might happen.
— John Kay, Radical Uncertainty

Similar recommendations

View all
The Rational Optimist
11
people
person
The Changing World Order
9
people
person
The Wealth of Nations
8
people
person
Economics in One Lesson
7
people
person
The Sovereign Individual
The Sovereign Individual
James Dale Davidson
7
people
person
The Rise and Fall of American Growth
6
people
person
Capital in the Twenty-First Century
4
people
person
The Law
The Law
Frédéric Bastiat
4
people
person
The Road to Serfdom
4
people
person
Freakonomics
Freakonomics
Steven D. Levitt
3
people
person

This site is part of Amazon’s Associates Program. Purchasing books recommended by successful individuals through my links earns us a small commission, helping keep the site running, at no additional cost to you. Thank you for supporting our site!